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“三季报”的启示：关注消费的实质是关注收入_我的网站
一 | 本文来自微信公众号：经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn），作者：张林 10月20日公布的三季度经济统计数据，充分体现出当前我国宏观经济运行的特征，即与高技术相关的生产和投资持续供需两旺，其中，高技术产业工业增加值同比增长9.6%，高技术服务业固定资产投资同比增长6.2%，但在经济新动能加快扩张的过程中，季度GDP增速却出现了边际的下行。 TOPEKA, Kan. -- Child welfare officials investigated the family of a 5-year-old Kansas girl five times in the 13 months before she was raped and killed, but couldn't confirm allegations of neglect or drug use by her mother, and the family repeatedly declined offers of help, a report released Tuesday showed. The report by the state Department of Children and Families said in one case, the agency confirmed that the mother wasn't properly supervising Zoey Felix, but the girl was placed with her father and because of that, “No safety concerns were identified.” After receiving allegations in late August of drug use and lack of utilities in the home, child welfare officials made seven failed attempts to reach the family over the next month.On Oct. 2, Zoey died after fire crews couldn't resuscitate her at a gas station. Neighbors believe Zoey and her father had been camping in a grove of trees on a vacant lot nearby. Mickel Cherry, a 25-year-old homeless man, is charged with first-degree murder, rape and capital murder, and could face the death penalty. Authorities haven't said how Zoey died. “Zoey Felix’s death was an unacceptable tragedy," Gov. Laura Kelly said in a statement accompanying the Department of Children and Families' two-page summary of its interactions with the girl's family. Kelly said she plans to push for legislation next year that would expedite the release of information when a child dies of abuse or neglect. Her administration pushed for such a change in 2021, but a bill never passed. Currently, DCF only releases a summary of its involvement initially and can't do so until attorneys vet the document. Typically, the full case reports aren’t released until after the prosecution is completed, which can take well over a year.This has left an information vacuum in Zoey's case that was exacerbated Tuesday when a judge sealed the arrest affidavit that was used to support criminal charges against Cherry. Judge Christopher Turner concluded that releasing the records would jeopardize the safety of witnesses or sources or “cause the destruction of evidence.”Cherry’s attorney, Mark Manna, of the Kansas Death Penalty Defense Unit, has declined to comment. Cherry’s family didn’t respond to phone messages, and his Facebook friends described him as chronically homeless. Neighbors said Zoey wandered their neighborhood dirty and hungry. Several reported calling child welfare to express concerns. According to the summary from DCF, child welfare officials said they received the first tip about Zoey on Sept. 8, 2022, alleging poor conditions in the home and possible drug use in the presence of a child. The mother agreed to a drug screen and it came back negative, the agency said. The agency also said in its summary that Zoey's mother was working with court services. By then, she had been charged with domestic battery against her husband and teenage daughter, court records show. The DCF summary said the agency offered help to the family, but they declined and the case was closed. Another complaint alleging an unsupervised child was lodged with the agency on Nov. 8, 2002. Just six days earlier, Zoey's mother had called to report that the then 4-year-old was missing, a police incident report shows. Zoey was found unharmed a short time later.The DCF summary made no reference to Zoey's disappearance, and it was unclear whether that prompted the complaint. The summary said simply that the case was unsubstantiated and offers of help were denied. Later that month, Zoey's mother was arrested after crashing her car near a north Topeka bar while driving drunk with Zoey in the front seat. A sworn statement from a Topeka police officer, which also was released Tuesday, said the mother was “having difficulty standing upright, attempting to walk away with a small child.” He also wrote that in looking into her car, he saw two open bottles of vodka, one half-full and the other, three-quarters full. The officer said that in interviews, Zoey said her mother had been drinking from both bottles before and while driving.The officer wrote that the mother was uncooperative and, “She was taken to the ground in order to be handcuffed.”The DCF summary said welfare workers left Zoey in her father’s care; court records show he was living with a girlfriend at the time. Zoey's mother was jailed until March, when she pleaded guilty to felony aggravated battery and driving under the influence and was sentenced to probation. Zoey's father was evicted from his apartment in May. Another tip the agency received that month alleged there were no operating utilities in the mother's home, but the agency found the home to be “livable," with utilities, food and no signs of drugs. Again, the family declined services. Then on Aug. 29, another complaint alleged drug use and no utilities, prompting the seven failed attempts by the agency to contact the family in September. But during that time, police went to the home twice, once even tracking down Zoey and talking to her. But officers were told by Zoey’s father that she wasn’t living there, city spokeswoman Gretchen Spiker said. The second time police responded, an officer stood outside as belongings were retrieved from the house, a police report said. Police reports do not explain where Zoey, her sister, her father and Cherry went after that, but neighbors said they were living in a makeshift camp.Laura Howard, the top administrator for the Department for Children and Families, vowed to launch a thorough investigation.“We will take every step necessary," she wrote in a statement. DCF opened another investigation as a result of Zoey’s death.。 主要原因之一是三季度的消费增长相较二季度有所放缓，但同时消费对经济增长的贡献率却在提升，前者说明当前“供强于需”依然是经济运行的主要矛盾，后者说明消费变化对经济增长的影响程度正在提升。 去年的中央经济工作会议和今年的政府工作报告，都是将“大力提振消费、提高投资效益”列为重点工作任务之首，背后的逻辑就在于消费、投资和生产是耦合联动的整体，消费存在短板最终会制约生产的扩张。 观察这些年的经济数据会发现，只要代表终端消费的社会消费品零售额增速低于4%，该季度的经济增速就会落到5%以下。季度GDP统计是以生产法为主，这说明消费需求变化同步反映到了销售和生产过程中。 有一种类似于“现代版萨伊定律”的观点认为，储蓄和生产才是经济增长的来源，没有生产就不能消费，并且只有少消费才能增加储蓄和投资，或者说，消费只是经济增长的一个结果。这种观点还认为，如果消费可以促进财富的增长，那世界上就不应该有穷国，只要印钱给居民花钱就可以了。 这一观点的逻辑缺陷在于，经济循环是不可分割的连续过程，生产与消费在一个经济体系中从来不分先来后到，而是互相作用的，消费是生产的结果，但也是生产的目的。
二 | 例如在计划经济体系下，经济活动围绕生产计划展开，这一极度重视生产和资本积累的体系，最终却导致了“短缺经济”。 消费活动是由千千万万个家庭，根据自己的收入与意愿分散做出的决定，或许有人消费透支，或许有人过于节俭，但这些千千万万的决定不太可能同时系统性地出错。此外，消费活动对价格信号的反应更加及时，比如一件商品供不应求、价格很高，那么无法为此付费的消费需求就被自然消除了。 企业的投资和生产活动却往往会出现集体性偏差，由于对价格信号的反馈存在滞后，在存在超额利润的领域，往往会出现过度投资，从而呈现出凯恩斯理论中所描述的经济周期波动，生产与投资活动在经济周期中也容易陷入负反馈。与此同时，在逆周期调节政策所重点拉动的领域，又往往会出现重复性的生产和投资，2015年开启的供给侧结构性改革以及2024年开启的“反内卷”，实际上都是对前一个阶段的不合理生产和投资进行纠偏。 所以说，仅仅重视生产并不能理解经济增长的全貌。扩大消费与扩大内需的提法由来已久，但直到2024年中央经济工作会议之后，系统性提振消费才成为宏观调控的共识，这是宏观调控思路的重大转向。在这一调整背后，是我国已经成为全球规模最大、效率最高、平均成本约束下技术水平最高的生产国，投资和生产的方向需要与消费需求保持正向互动，否则容易出现低价陷阱和大量浪费。 那么，既然消费活动是分散而理性的，又为何要去提振消费呢？促进消费并不是靠“印钱”来解决的，关注消费的实质是关注收入，因为消费是收入的函数，所以提振消费在很大程度上是要研究哪些因素制约了收入的增长。
三 | 再回到今年前三季度的经济统计，虽然权益市场上涨明显，有助于改善居民财产性收入，但在储蓄存款利率下调以及房租下调的背景下，前三季度居民财产净收入同比增长仅为1.7%。居民部门在房价下行的背景下仍处在去杠杆的过程中，资产缩水效应对收入预期的压制依然存在。这就说明，需要在房产资产领域进一步落实支持性的政策。
四 | 同时，前三季度居民人均可支配收入中位数的名义增速为4.5%，低于人均可支配收入整体增速0.6个百分点，说明中低收入群体的收入增速相对缓慢。而中低收入群体的基本生活消费支出占比较高，在衣食住行方面的支出更加“精打细算”，这也能解释为何三季度食品、衣着以及居住方面的消费支出增速相较二季度边际下行。
五 | 这就说明，还需要提高社会保障兜底水平，以缓解居民消费支出的后顾之忧。 在经济运行中最亮眼的领域——高技术制造和生产，同样也离不开消费需求扩张的支撑，比如为情绪价值付费意向较高的群体，将来也会是元宇宙、脑机接口的主要消费群体，而新型储能、未来网络、人形机器人等前沿产业，也只有在覆盖广大中低收入群体后，才能真正转化为广泛的生产力。
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